Efficient Data Augmentation for Fitting Stochastic Epidemic Models to Prevalence Data

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time evolution of an epidemic gives rise to a complicated latent variable problem in which the state space size of the epidemic grows large as the population size increases. This makes analytically integrating over the missing data infeasible for populations of even moderate size. We present a data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework for Bayesian estimation of stochastic epidemic model parameters, in which measurements are augmented with subject-level disease histories. In our MCMC algorithm, we propose each new subject-level path, conditional on the data, using a time-inhomogenous continuous-time Markov process with rates determined by the infection histories of other individuals. The method is general, and may be applied to a broad class of epidemic models with only minimal modifications to the model dynamics and/or emission distribution. We present our algorithm in the context of multiple stochastic epidemic models in which the data are binomially sampled prevalence counts, and apply our method to data from an outbreak of influenza in a British boarding school. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Unexpected Radical Telomerisation of Vinylidene Fluoride with 2-Mercaptoethanol

The radical telomerisation of vinylidene fluoride (VDF) with 2-mercaptoethanol as chain transfer agent (CTA) was studied to synthesise fluorinated telomers which bear a hydroxy end-group, such as H(VDF)_nS(CH₂)₂OH, under thermal (di-tert-butyl peroxide as the initiator) or photochemical initiations. A careful structural study of a typical H-VDF-S(CH₂)₂OH telomer was performed by ¹H and ¹⁹F NMR spectroscopy. These analytical methods allowed us to explore the selective addition of the thiyl radical onto the hydrogenated side of VDF, and the telomer containing one VDF unit was obtained selectively. Surprisingly, for higher [VDF]_o initial concentrations, a monoadduct telomer was produced as well as PVDF homopolymer. This feature was related to the fast consumption of the CTA. The kinetics of radical telomerisation led to a quite high transfer constant of the CTA (40 at 140 °C) that evidences the formation of a monoadduct as the only telomer formed.     

Palatability Enhancement Potential of Hermetia illucens Larvae Protein Hydrolysate in Litopenaeus vannamei Diets

Marine feed ingredients derived from cephalopods (e.g., squid) and crustaceans (e.g., krill) are commercially used to improve the palatability of shrimp diets. Increase in global demand for shrimps has resulted in overfishing of these marine organisms and is a matter of concern. Insect protein hydrolysate could be a sustainable alternative for the possible replacement of these marine feed ingredients. During this study, four formulations: diet A (control: not containing any palatability enhancer), diet B (containing squid meal and krill oil), diet C (containing 1% insect protein hydrolysate), and diet D (containing 2% insect protein hydrolysate) were tested for (1) time required by first subject to begin feeding (time to strike) and (2) palatability in Litopenaeus vannamei. Additionally, the chemical composition of all four diet formulations was also analyzed. Results indicate that all diets had similar crude composition. The major essential amino acids in all diets were leucine and lysine, whereas eicosapentaenoic acid was the major omega-3 fatty acid in all diets. There were no significant differences between the mean time to strike for all the tested formulations. Palatability of tested formulations was found in the following order: diet D > diet C > diet B = diet A (p < 0.05), indicating that addition of squid meal and krill oil has no effect on palatability in comparison to control, whereas inclusion of insect protein hydrolysates significantly improves the palatability of formulations. Palatability enhancement potential of insect protein hydrolysate could be attributed to the high free amino acid content and water solubility in comparison to squid meal.     

Isomaltulose Exhibits Prebiotic Activity,and Modulates Gut Microbiota,the Production of Short Chain Fatty Acids,and Secondary Bile Acids in Rats

In vitro experiments have indicated prebiotic activity of isomaltulose, which stimulates the growth of probiotics and the production of short chain fatty acids (SCFAs). However, the absence of in vivo trials undermines these results. This study aims to investigate the effect of isomaltulose on composition and functionality of gut microbiota in rats. Twelve Sprague–Dawley rats were divided into two groups: the IsoMTL group was given free access to water containing 10% isomaltulose (w/w), and the control group was treated with normal water for five weeks. Moreover, 16S rRNA sequencing showed that ingestion of isomaltulose increased the abundances of beneficial microbiota, such as Faecalibacterium and Phascolarctobacterium, and decreased levels of pathogens, including Shuttleworthia. Bacterial functional prediction showed that isomaltulose affected gut microbial functionalities, including secondary bile acid biosynthesis. Targeted metabolomics demonstrated that isomaltulose supplementation enhanced cholic acid concentration, and reduced levels of lithocholic acid, deoxycholic acid, dehydrocholic acid, and hyodeoxycholic acid. Moreover, the concentrations of propionate and butyrate were elevated in the rats administered with isomaltulose. This work suggests that isomaltulose modulates gut microbiota and the production of SCFAs and secondary bile acids in rats, which provides a scientific basis on the use of isomaltulose as a prebiotic.     

Process intensification for synthesis of triglycerides of capric acid using green approaches

The present research focuses on intensified synthesis of tricaprin by esterification reaction between capric acid and glycerol catalysed by dry amberlyst-15 using ultrasonication approach. Effect of several reaction conditions like molar ratio, reaction temperature, and amberlyst-15 loading on the rate of conversion has been studied. Effect of ultrasonic conditions like duty cycle and irradiation time on the intensified synthesis is investigated. Recyclability of amberlyst-15 is studied to make process more economical. It is investigated that the optimum reaction conditions which gave maximum conversion of 95% were molar ratio of capric acid: glycerol as 3:5, reaction temperature 90 ​°C, 4% amberlyst −15 loading. It was further investigated that ultrasonic conditions which gave intensified synthesis were 70% duty cycle and irradiation time of 120 ​min. The ultrasonic assisted process was compared with conventional synthesis. Conventional synthesis gave 30% yield in 120 ​min and 82% in 18 ​h. Amberlyst-15 was successfully reused for 13 cycle without any change in the conversion (%) of reaction.     

Monitoring of circulating amino acids in patients with pancreatic cancer and cancer cachexia using capillary electrophoresis and contactless conductivity detection

Branched chain amino acids (BCAAs), alanine and glutamine are determined in human plasma by capillary electrophoresis with contactless conductivity detection (CE/C⁴D). The baseline separation of five amino acids from other plasma components is achieved on the short capillary effective length of 18 cm in 3.2 mol/L acetic acid with addition of 13% v/v methanol as background electrolyte. Migration times range from 2.01 min for valine to 2.84 min for glutamine, and LODs for untreated plasma are in the interval 0.7–0.9 μmol/L. Sample treatment is based on the addition of acetonitrile to only 15 μL of plasma and supernatant is directly subjected to CE/C⁴D. Circulating amino acids are measured in patients with pancreatic cancer and cancer cachexia during oral glucose tolerance test. It is shown that patients with pancreatic cancer and cancer cachexia syndrome exhibit low basal circulating BCAAs and glutamine levels and loss of their insulin-dependent suppression.     

Bacteria and cancer cell pearl chain under dielectrophoresis

In this work, we aim to observe and study the physics of bacteria and cancer cells pearl chain formation under dielectrophoresis (DEP). Experimentally, we visualized the formation of Bacillus subtilis bacterial pearl chain and human breast cancer cell (MCF-7) chain under positive and negative dielectrophoretic force, respectively. Through a simple simulation with creeping flow, AC/DC electric fields, and particle tracing modules in COMSOL, we examined the mechanism by which bacteria self-organize into a pearl chain across the gap between two electrodes via DEP. Our simulation results reveal that the region of greatest positive DEP force shifts from the electrode edge to the leading edge of the pearl chain, thus guiding the trajectories of free-flowing particles toward the leading edge via positive DEP. Our findings additionally highlight the mechanism why the free-flowing particles are more likely to join the existing pearl chain rather than starting a new pearl chain. This phenomenon is primarily due to the increase in magnitude of electric field gradient, and hence DEP force exerted, with the shortening gap between the pearl chain leading edge and the adjacent electrode. The findings shed light on the observed behavior of preferential pearl chain formation across electrode gaps.     

长链支化聚丙烯的非线性流变行为

通过大幅振荡剪切试验方法, 研究了长链支化聚丙烯的非线性流变学行为, 揭示了长链支化结构与非线性黏弹响应的关系. 利用傅里叶变换流变学方法得到试样的三次倍频相对振幅I_3/1与应变的标度关系, 用于界定线性聚丙烯和长链支化聚丙烯非线性流变行为的差异, 并定义了非线性系数来量度长链支化程度. 在高应变下, I_3/1与应变的变化关系可以进一步描述长链支化在非线性流场下的特性, 并得到了长链支化程度与其非线性响应之间的变化关系. 通过应力波的Lissajous曲线分解, 发现了环内和环间黏弹性的差异, 长链支化结构在大应变流场下的非线性黏弹性响应弱于线性结构, 支化程度越高非线性响应越弱.     

Stereoselective Remote Functionalization via Palladium-Catalyzed Redox-Relay Heck Methodologies

Exploration of novel, three-dimensional chemical space is of growing interest in the drug discovery community and with this comes the challenge for synthetic chemists to devise new stereoselective methods to introduce chirality in a rapid and efficient manner. This Minireview provides a timely summary of the development of palladium-catalyzed asymmetric redox-relay Heck-type processes. These reactions represent an important class of transformation for the selective introduction of remote stereocenters, and have risen to prominence over the past decade. Within this Minireview, the vast scope of these transformations will be showcased, alongside applications to pharmaceutically relevant chiral building blocks and drug substances. To complement this overview, a mechanistic summary and discussion of the current limitations of the transformation are presented, followed by an outlook on future areas of investigation.     

Computer-assisted analysis of chaos in a three-species food chain model

In this paper, a three-species food chain model with Holling type IV and Beddington–DeAngelis functional responses is formulated. Numerical simulations show that this system can generate chaos for some parameter values. But the mechanism behind chaos is still unclear only through numerical simulations. Then, using the topological horseshoe theories and Conley–Moser conditions, we present a computer-assisted analysis to show the chaoticity of this system in the topological sense, that is, it has positive topological entropy. We prove that the Poincaré map of this model possesses a closed uniformly hyperbolic chaotic invariant set, and it is topologically conjugate to a 2-shift map. At last, we consider the impact of fear on this three-species model. It is an important factor in controlling chaos in biological models, which has been validated in other models.